The equity markets in the coming week will be heavily influenced by global economic events, with a particular focus on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, according to market experts. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on macro trends, tariff conflicts, and global economic data, which could impact market movements.

Key Factors Influencing Markets This Week

1. US Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Decision

One of the most crucial events this week will be the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on interest rates. Any changes in the Fed's stance on monetary policy could trigger market volatility worldwide.

2. Domestic Macroeconomic Data

• WPI Inflation Data for February: Investors will be closely monitoring India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation data, which could impact market sentiment and future monetary policy expectations.
• Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Activity: The buying and selling patterns of foreign investors will be crucial in determining the movement of benchmark indices.

3. Global Trade and Economic Developments

The ongoing uncertainties in global trade and tariff conflicts remain a key concern. Market sentiment is expected to be influenced by any fresh developments in trade negotiations between major economies.

Expert Market Predictions

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, the Indian stock market's momentum will continue to be impacted by global trade uncertainties and concerns over a potential US recession.

However, he also pointed out that certain supportive factors could help stabilize the market, including:
Recent corrections leading to moderation in valuations
Falling crude oil prices
Easing of the US dollar index
Expectations of a rebound in domestic earnings in the coming quarters

These factors may limit volatility and provide stability amid ongoing trade uncertainties.

Global Economic Indicators to Watch

Apart from US Fed’s decision, investors will also be tracking:

• China’s Retail Sales & Industrial Production Data – Key indicators of China’s economic growth and industrial activity.
• US Retail Sales & Production Figures – Market sentiment will be influenced by how the US economy performs in terms of consumer spending and manufacturing output.
• Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision – The BoE’s stance on monetary policy will be closely monitored, as it impacts global financial markets.

Market Recap: What Happened Last Week?

Last week, global trade tensions and recession fears in the US weighed on the stock markets.

BSE Sensex: Fell by over 500 points
NSE Nifty50: Dropped by 150+ points

The volatility was primarily driven by uncertainty around US trade policies and their potential impact on global economic stability.

What to Expect This Week?

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, believes that markets are likely to remain range-bound and volatile, with global trends playing a major role in dictating market movements.

Investors should stay cautious and focus on macroeconomic indicators, corporate earnings expectations, and developments in global trade policies to navigate the market in the upcoming week.